2020 Vol. 63, No. 3
Article Contents

CHENG Jia, XU XiWei, CHEN GuiHua. 2020. A new prediction model of seismic hazard for the Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the occurrence rate of large earthquakes. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 63(3): 1170-1182, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0204
Citation: CHENG Jia, XU XiWei, CHEN GuiHua. 2020. A new prediction model of seismic hazard for the Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the occurrence rate of large earthquakes. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 63(3): 1170-1182, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0204

A new prediction model of seismic hazard for the Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the occurrence rate of large earthquakes

  • Fund Project:

    国家重点研发项目(2018YFC1504201),中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2018-22)和国家自然科学基金重大专项(41941016)共同资助

  • Sichuan-Yunnan is one of the regions with high seismic hazard and risk in China. To facilitate prediction and prevention of the catastrophic large earthquakes, we establish a new model of seismic hazard analysis for the Sichuan-Yunnan region using the OpenQuake software. First, we divide the region into 11 different seismic source zones according to the contemporary tectonic deformation characters. We also collect the slip rates of the major faults in each zone. Then, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship to transfer the GPS strain rate into the predicted seismicity rate for each seismic source Zone, including the earthquakes with magnitude larger than historical events. We also transfer the slip rate of the fault into seismicity accumulation rate. According to the ratio between the seismicity rate for each seismic source zone and on the faults in the zone, we distribute the predicted earthquake rates for each magnitude bin onto the fault sources and the background seismicity. Our procedure considers the possibility of the earthquakes larger than the maximum magnitude in the historical catalog. To distribute these large earthquakes, we do not divide the faults into segments with the small fault steps, especially for the major active faults. For the background seismicity rate, we use the smoothed seismicity rate model to distribute the remaining part of the seismicity rate in each seismic source zone. Finally, we calculate the seismic hazard maps from the seismicity rate model of the Sichuan-Yunnan region using the OpenQuake engine and the ground motion prediction equations model. This result could be a scientific basis for regional seismic hazard analysis.

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